Thanks to Donald Trump, Iran is poised to become a global power.
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A blog by Martin Erasmuson.
Having chosen to attack Iran, Trump and the US are now on the horns of an escalation trap no obvious exit option. His choices are 1) escalate or 2) walk away.
To win his war Trump needs to:
overturn the regime
destroy or remove their existing enriched uranium
prevent them from resume uranium enrichment
destroy their existing drone and missile stockpile
prevent them resuming their drone and missile production.
In contrast, to win, all the Iranian Government needs to do is survive.
To date, Iran has won the war insomuch as the US/Israel have not achieved any of their objectives, while the Iranian Government remains more or less intact.
Further, Iran is now stronger than it was before the war started, and is now on track to become a Middle-East Regional Power, if not a world power.
First the escalation trap, escalate or retreat.
Option 1: Escalate
As of early April 2026, U.S. Politico reported that the military was running out of high-value targets to strike in Iran after weeks of intensive bombardment, with many remaining assets hidden in hardened bunkers, or simply hidden.
As the US continued with air strikes, all it seemed to do was burn-through stockpiles of hard to replace and expensive munitions like tomahawk cruise missiles.
As the US continues its military build up in The Gulf, there is speculation it will attempt a ground invasion of Iran. Many expert commentators, including retired US army Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson (former chief of staff to US Secretary of State Colin Powell) suggest a ground war against Iran would take years (e.g. Iraq, Afghanistan), and further, basdd in part of war-games Col Wilkerson himself conducted, the US would lose (e.g. Viet Nam, Iraq, Afghanistan).
Meanwhile, the Straigh of Hormuz would remain closed, along with 20% of global oil production, gas prices in the US would spike, along with inflation. Along with the US, the global economy would tank, likely leading to depression. Global food production would fall (due to reduced access to fertilisers), leading to global food shortages.
Trump would lose the US mid-term elections (for Congress and Senate), and likely be impeached in 2027.
Upshot? Short, medium and long-term - we’re all fucked.
Option 2: Retreat
Trump declares victory and walks away.
Such a move would leave all the US pre-war objectives unfulfilled, plus Iran would retain control of the straight of Hormuz, charging tolls and making US$140M per day or US$80B per year.
Upshot? The oil keeps flowing, albeit more expensive, with Trump attempting to apply lipstick to the ‘I lost’ pig.
Option 2B: Retreat, with US blockade on Strait of Hormuz
This will have the same economic effects as options 1, escalation, but worse.
Iran through its ally and proxy the Houthis (officially known as Ansar Allah), has threatened to close Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow strait between the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea and gateway to the Suez Canal. Such a move would amplify the economic effects of a closed Strait of Hormuz.
China! As of writing, China was ignoring Trumps blockade with several China owned or flagged tankers transiting the strait. Even Trump is probably no stupid enough to go toe-to-toe with China.
And, as it turns out, China is the big winner of the Iran war, and even more so the longer it goes on.
Come the end of WW2, by accident or design, the US ended up the top dog in the world largely because every other pre-war power; Japan, China, the USSR, the UK, Germany and the rest of Europe had fought themselves to a standstill. And when the USSR formally ended in December 1991, the US became the global hegemon.
Today, in the US/Israel/Iran war China employing the same playbook i.e. sitting back and watching the United States bleed-out without firing a shot.
Once the shooting stops
Key members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC – comprising: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) welcomed US military basses on their territory principally for security reasons.
Of the many salient lessons of the this war, a key one for GCC states is that, not only were the various US bases not a deterrent for Iran, they were a target, along with those states own energy infrastructure.
Further, the war provided daily, real-time examples of the US’s impedance in both attack and defence. As of early April 2026, the conflict with Iran had caused significant U.S. losses, including over 15 personnel deaths, hundreds injured, $billions in equipment damage, including F-15s, an E-3 AWACS, A10 warthog, 2 X Black Hawks, 2 X Hercules C130, dozens of drones and cruise missiles, a severely depleted air-defence missile inventory, and almost total retreat from 13 Middle East bases which multiple media outlets describe as now ‘uninhabitable’. But perhaps the biggest cost is reputation and the illusion of US invincibility. That will leave the various Gulf states pondering their defence options, likely without the US.
That may well lead to a regional nuclear arms race.
If Iran wasn’t considering a nuclear weapon prior to this latest Israel/US attack, they must surely be considering one now. For their own security, how many GCC countries will also consider a nuclear weapon?
China, the big winner.
As of early 2026, roughly 13% to 15% of China's total crude oil imports come directly or indirectly from Iran.
Chinese firms own, operate, or have stakes in over 100 ports worldwide, some bought, but many built by China. When the US/Israel/Iran conflict comes to its inevitable conclusion, almost certainly China will step in and build, or rebuild Iranian ports, oil refineries and associated infrastructure.
Add to that the Chinese Belt & Road initiative, which has already built rail links from China through to Iran.
Iran’s oil exports to China, via sea and rail will almost certainly increase which, along with other infrastructure investments, will put rocket-boosters on Iran’s economy. In a few years, Iran will be the powerhouse in the middle east, adding to the existing, collective $27T GDP of its BRICS belt and road neighbours, Russia ($2.66T), India ($4.15T), and China ($20.86T).
President Xi Jinping must be saying ‘thanks Donald, I couldn’t have done it better myself’.